On these days, there are many things that discourage the revolutionary forces regarding the news from Naung Cho and Moe Bye. Moe Bye in Karenni State and Naung Cho in northern Shan State are towns that were returned to the military in July. Regarding the military junta’s retaking of these towns, there were some slight differences of opinion among the revolutionary forces, and there were also criticisms among themselves, such as the fact that they had to return because they needed to manage it because they did not help. This criticism was especially loud regarding the military junta’s retaking of Naung Cho.
To be frank, the recaptured towns of Naung Cho and Moe Bye are really important for the revolution. The military junta’s capture of Moe Bye will open the way for their troops to the state capital, Loikaw, and the towns of Pekon and Pinlaung, and will make it easier for them to launch ground attacks on Demoso and other towns controlled by the revolutionary forces. Similarly, the capture of Naung Cho also opens the door for the military junta to retake the areas in northern Shan that they have lost over the past few years. This is because the troops, whether from the Central Military Command (Mandalay) or the Eastern Military Command (Taunggyi), will have to cross Naung Cho first to retake the towns of Kyaukme and Hsipaw(Thibaw), which are controlled by the TNLA. I would say that the capture of Naung Cho opens the way for northern Shan.
In addition, the military junta is also somewhat proud of the fact that it has been able to recapture these two strategic cities after losing the war continuously since 2021. Because the military junta’s continuous losses in recent years have destroyed many of the strong divisions, battalions and soldiers that they have relied on for many years, and there has been widespread criticism of the military junta leaders, from the rank and file to supporters. These events will certainly be an insurmountable obstacle for the military junta generals in Nay Pyi Taw, who are too proud of their military.
That is why, shortly after they took control of the towns of Naung Cho and Moe Bye, which they have now recaptured, they sent media propagandists like Kyaw Myo Min and Kyaw Soe Oo, who are always doing propaganda for the generals, to these towns, and they took documentary and video footage to spread the message that the military junta was winning among the rank and file soldiers and supporters.
Here, I would like to briefly review what I have seen of the military junta’s recent recovery. In the past few years, our revolutionary forces and the military junta were able to quickly and quickly seized the territory of the military one by one, mainly because of their unity. To put it clearly, although the 1027 Operation was carried out by the Three Brothers, it was not just the Three Brothers who attacked the military junta, but all the revolutionary forces participated in this operation and fought together. That is, in the battles that took place in northern Shan, such as Hsipaw (Thibaw), Lashio, Hsenwi (Theinni) and many other cities, not only the Three Brothers soldiers but also the revolutionary comrades from the lands of Magway and Sagaing, the Karenni comrades, and the PLA and BPLA units that were said to be independent, also participated in the battles. Similarly, in the battles in Kachin State, the battles to capture cities in Rakhine State, From the strategic camp capture battles in Karen State to the Karenni battles, we did not attack as a single group, but rather, we all attacked together at the right time.
The military junta, knowing full well that the revolutionary forces would not be able to cope with the situation if they attacked together, took the help of China, which was their trump card, and worked to break up the revolutionary forces in northern Shan, which were the most vulnerable. When they could not withstand the pressure of China for various reasons, the army and the northern Shan forces were separated by units that could no longer fire ammunition, and their strength was considerably weakened. I would like to say that this is the main reason why the army has regained its strength as it is today.
Another thing, as we all know, is that the military junta is filling the need for military service with the military service law. During the 4-5 years of fighting, when the military junta was exhausted, deserted, and died, it enacted the military service law to include all the young men in the country in the war. This law is a legal confirmation for the Myanmar that is currently in the midst of fierce fighting to sacrifice an entire generation of young men. Although it is said that “youth are the future of the country”, the Min Aung Hlaing group has been implementing this law without thinking about anything in order to remain in power. The soldiers who could be recruited under this law were forced to die in frontline battlefields like human wave operations and attacked the revolutionary forces.
According to the reports I have received, the military junta is feeding conscripts with drugs and forcing them to die in front, which is making it really difficult for the revolutionary forces to operate on the front lines. This means that the military’s human wave operation has been successful to some extent.
Another thing is that the military junta has been upgrading drone technology. As we have said in the past, whether we accept it or not, the military junta is an organization that can spend the state budget as it pleases. That is why, after the war in which they lost, drone technology has been upgraded and widely used in battles. When we talk about drone, not only attack drones but also reconnaissance drones have been upgraded, and they have been used to locate the revolutionary forces, and to attack with more powerful weapons.
I think that the military junta has made such a comeback because of the above-mentioned factors. Here, the revolutionary forces, just like the military junta, should carefully analyze their own weaknesses and identify what needs to be fixed, and quickly make the necessary adjustments. Even when they had nothing, the revolutionary forces were able to defeat the military junta, so now that they have more ammunition and weapons than before, if they can identify the weaknesses of the forces, they will surely achieve no less success than in previous years.